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Greenhouse Effect

| I. | | Introduction |

Greenhouse Effect, the capacity of certain gases in the atmosphere to trap heat emitted from the Earth’s surface, thereby insulating and warming the Earth. Without the thermal blanketing of the natural greenhouse effect, the Earth’s climate would be about 33 Celsius degrees (about 59 Fahrenheit degrees) cooler—too cold for most living organisms to survive.

The greenhouse effect has warmed the Earth for over 4 billion years. Now scientists are growing increasingly concerned that human activities may be modifying this natural process, with potentially dangerous consequences. Since the advent of the Industrial Revolution in the 1700s, humans have devised many inventions that burn fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Burning these fossil fuels, as well as other activities such as clearing land for agriculture or urban settlements, releases some of the same gases that trap heat in the atmosphere, including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. These atmospheric gases have risen to levels higher than at any time in the last 420,000 years. As these gases build up in the atmosphere, they trap more heat near the Earth’s surface, causing Earth’s climate to become warmer than it would naturally.

Scientists call this unnatural heating effect global warming and blame it for an increase in the Earth’s surface temperature of about 0.6 Celsius degrees (about 1 Fahrenheit degree) over the last nearly 100 years. Without remedial measures, many scientists fear that global temperatures will rise 1.4 to 5.8 Celsius degrees (2.5 to 10.4 Fahrenheit degrees) by 2100. These warmer temperatures could melt parts of polar ice caps and most mountain glaciers, causing a rise in sea level of up to 1 m (40 in) within a century or two, which would flood coastal regions. Global warming could also affect weather patterns causing, among other problems, prolonged drought or increased flooding in some of the world’s leading agricultural regions.

| II. | | How the Greenhouse Effect Works |

The greenhouse effect results from the interaction between sunlight and the layer of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere that extends up to 100 km (60 mi) above Earth's surface. Sunlight is composed of a range of radiant energies known as the solar spectrum, which includes visible light, infrared light, gamma rays, X rays, and ultraviolet light. When the Sun’s radiation reaches the Earth’s atmosphere, some 25 percent of the energy is reflected back into space by clouds and other atmospheric particles. About 20 percent is absorbed in the atmosphere. For instance, gas molecules in the uppermost layers of the atmosphere absorb the Sun’s gamma rays and X rays. The Sun’s ultraviolet radiation is absorbed by the ozone layer, located 19 to 48 km (12 to 30 mi) above the Earth’s surface.

About 50 percent of the Sun’s energy, largely in the form of visible light, passes through the atmosphere to reach the Earth’s surface. Soils, plants, and oceans on the Earth’s surface absorb about 85 percent of this heat energy, while the rest is reflected back into the atmosphere—most effectively by reflective surfaces such as snow, ice, and sandy deserts. In addition, some of the Sun’s radiation that is absorbed by the Earth’s surface becomes heat energy in the form of long-wave infrared radiation, and this energy is released back into the atmosphere.

Certain gases in the atmosphere, including water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, absorb this infrared radiant heat, temporarily preventing it from dispersing into space. As these atmospheric gases warm, they in turn emit infrared radiation in all directions. Some of this heat returns back to Earth to further warm the surface in what is known as the greenhouse effect, and some of this heat is eventually released to space. This heat transfer creates equilibrium between the total amount of heat that reaches the Earth from the Sun and the amount of heat that the Earth radiates out into space. This equilibrium or energy balance—the exchange of energy between the Earth’s surface, atmosphere, and space—is important to maintain a climate that can support a wide variety of life.

The heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere behave like the glass of a greenhouse. They let much of the Sun’s rays in, but keep most of that heat from directly escaping. Because of this, they are called greenhouse gases. Without these gases, heat energy absorbed and reflected from the Earth’s surface would easily radiate back out to space, leaving the planet with an inhospitable temperature close to –19°C (2°F), instead of the present average surface temperature of 15°C (59°F).

To appreciate the importance of the greenhouse gases in creating a climate that helps sustain most forms of life, compare Earth to Mars and Venus. Mars has a thin atmosphere that contains low concentrations of heat-trapping gases. As a result, Mars has a weak greenhouse effect resulting in a largely frozen surface that shows no evidence of life. In contrast, Venus has an atmosphere containing high concentrations of carbon dioxide. This heat-trapping gas prevents heat radiated from the planet’s surface from escaping into space, resulting in surface temperatures that average 462°C (864°F)—too hot to support life.

| III. | | Types of Greenhouse Gases |

Earth’s atmosphere is primarily composed of nitrogen (78 percent) and oxygen (21 percent). These two most common atmospheric gases have chemical structures that restrict absorption of infrared energy. Only the few greenhouse gases, which make up less than 1 percent of the atmosphere, offer the Earth any insulation. Greenhouse gases occur naturally or are manufactured. The most abundant naturally occurring greenhouse gas is water vapor, followed by carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Human-made chemicals that act as greenhouse gases include chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).

Since the 1700s, human activities have substantially increased the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Scientists are concerned that expected increases in the concentrations of greenhouse gases will powerfully enhance the atmosphere’s capacity to retain infrared radiation, leading to an artificial warming of the Earth’s surface.

| A. | | Water Vapor |

Water vapor is the most common greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, accounting for about 60 to 70 percent of the natural greenhouse effect. Humans do not have a significant direct impact on water vapor levels in the atmosphere. However, as human activities increase the concentration of other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (producing warmer temperatures on Earth), the evaporation of oceans, lakes, and rivers, as well as water evaporation from plants, increase and raise the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere.

| B. | | Carbon Dioxide |

Carbon dioxide constantly circulates in the environment through a variety of natural processes known as the carbon cycle. Volcanic eruptions and the decay of plant and animal matter both release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. In respiration, animals break down food to release the energy required to build and maintain cellular activity. A byproduct of respiration is the formation of carbon dioxide, which is exhaled from animals into the environment. Oceans, lakes, and rivers absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Through photosynthesis, plants collect carbon dioxide and use it to make their own food, in the process incorporating carbon into new plant tissue and releasing oxygen to the environment as a byproduct.

In order to provide energy to heat buildings, power automobiles, and fuel electricity-producing power plants, humans burn objects that contain carbon, such as the fossil fuels oil, coal, and natural gas; wood or wood products; and some solid wastes. When these products are burned, they release carbon dioxide into the air. In addition, humans cut down huge tracts of trees for lumber or to clear land for farming or building. This process, known as deforestation, can both release the carbon stored in trees and significantly reduce the number of trees available to absorb carbon dioxide.

As a result of these human activities, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is accumulating faster than the Earth’s natural processes can absorb the gas. By analyzing air bubbles trapped in glacier ice that is many centuries old, scientists have determined that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have risen by 31 percent since 1750. And since carbon dioxide increases can remain in the atmosphere for centuries, scientists expect these concentrations to double or triple in the next century if current trends continue.

| C. | | Methane |

Many natural processes produce methane, also known as natural gas. Decomposition of carbon-containing substances found in oxygen-free environments, such as wastes in landfills, release methane. Ruminating animals such as cattle and sheep belch methane into the air as a byproduct of digestion. Microorganisms that live in damp soils, such as rice fields, produce methane when they break down organic matter. Methane is also emitted during coal mining and the production and transport of other fossil fuels.

Methane has more than doubled in the atmosphere since 1750, and could double again in the next century. Atmospheric concentrations of methane are far less than carbon dioxide, and methane only stays in the atmosphere for a decade or so. But scientists consider methane an extremely effective heat-trapping gas—one molecule of methane is 20 times more efficient at trapping infrared radiation radiated from the Earth’s surface than a molecule of carbon dioxide.

| D. | | Nitrous Oxide |

Nitrous oxide is released by the burning of fossil fuels, and automobile exhaust is a large source of this gas. In addition, many farmers use nitrogen-containing fertilizers to provide nutrients to their crops. When these fertilizers break down in the soil, they emit nitrous oxide into the air. Plowing fields also releases nitrous oxide.

Since 1750 nitrous oxide has risen by 17 percent in the atmosphere. Although this increase is smaller than for the other greenhouse gases, nitrous oxide traps heat about 300 times more effectively than carbon dioxide and can stay in the atmosphere for a century.

| E. | | Fluorinated Compounds |

Some of the most potent greenhouse gases emitted are produced solely by human activities. Fluorinated compounds, including CFCs, HCFCs, and HFCs, are used in a variety of manufacturing processes. For each of these synthetic compounds, one molecule is several thousand times more effective in trapping heat than a single molecule of carbon dioxide.

CFCs, first synthesized in 1928, were widely used in the manufacture of aerosol sprays, blowing agents for foams and packing materials, as solvents, and as refrigerants. Nontoxic and safe to use in most applications, CFCs are harmless in the lower atmosphere. However, in the upper atmosphere, ultraviolet radiation breaks down CFCs, releasing chlorine into the atmosphere. In the mid-1970s, scientists began observing that higher concentrations of chlorine were destroying the ozone layer in the upper atmosphere. Ozone protects the Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation, which can cause cancer and other damage to plants and animals. Beginning in 1987 with the Montréal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, representatives from 47 countries established control measures that limited the consumption of CFCs. By 1992 the Montréal Protocol was amended to completely ban the manufacture and use of CFCs worldwide, except in certain developing countries and for use in special medical processes such as asthma inhalers.

Scientists devised substitutes for CFCs, developing HCFCs and HFCs. Since HCFCs still release ozone-destroying chlorine in the atmosphere, production of this chemical will be phased out by the year 2030, providing scientists some time to develop a new generation of safer, effective chemicals. HFCs, which do not contain chlorine and only remain in the atmosphere for a short time, are now considered the most effective and safest substitute for CFCs.

| F. | | Other Synthetic Chemicals |

Experts are concerned about other industrial chemicals that may have heat-trapping abilities. In 2000 scientists observed rising concentrations of a previously unreported compound called trifluoromethyl sulphur pentafluoride. Although present in extremely low concentrations in the environment, the gas still poses a significant threat because it traps heat more effectively than all other known greenhouse gases. The exact sources of the gas, undisputedly produced from industrial processes, still remain uncertain.

| IV. | | Other Factors Affecting the Greenhouse Effect |

Aerosols, also known as particulates, are airborne particles that absorb, scatter, and reflect radiation back into space. Clouds, windblown dust, and particles that can be traced to erupting volcanoes are examples of natural aerosols. Human activities, including the burning of fossil fuels and slash-and-burn farming techniques used to clear forestland, contribute additional aerosols to the atmosphere. Although aerosols are not considered a heat-trapping greenhouse gas, they do affect the transfer of heat energy radiated from the Earth to space. The effect of aerosols on climate change is still debated, but scientists believe that light-colored aerosols cool the Earth’s surface, while dark aerosols like soot actually warm the atmosphere. The increase in global temperature in the last century is lower than many scientists predicted when only taking into account increasing levels of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated compounds. Some scientists believe that aerosol cooling may be the cause of this unexpectedly reduced warming.

However, scientists do not expect that aerosols will ever play a significant role in offsetting global warming. As pollutants, aerosols typically pose a health threat, and the manufacturing or agricultural processes that produce them are subject to air-pollution control efforts. As a result, scientists do not expect aerosols to increase as fast as other greenhouse gases in the 21st century.

| V. | | Understanding the Greenhouse Effect |

Although concern over the effect of increasing greenhouse gases is a relatively recent development, scientists have been investigating the greenhouse effect since the early 1800s. French mathematician and physicist Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier, while exploring how heat is conducted through different materials, was the first to compare the atmosphere to a glass vessel in 1827. Fourier recognized that the air around the planet lets in sunlight, much like a glass roof.

In the 1850s British physicist John Tyndall investigated the transmission of radiant heat through gases and vapors. Tyndall found that nitrogen and oxygen, the two most common gases in the atmosphere, had no heat-absorbing properties. He then went on to measure the absorption of infrared radiation by carbon dioxide and water vapor, publishing his findings in 1863 in a paper titled “On Radiation Through the Earth’s Atmosphere.”

Swedish chemist Svante August Arrhenius, best known for his Nobel Prize-winning work in electrochemistry, also advanced understanding of the greenhouse effect. In 1896 he calculated that doubling the natural concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would increase global temperatures by 4 to 6 Celsius degrees (7 to 11 Fahrenheit degrees), a calculation that is not too far from today’s estimates using more sophisticated methods. Arrhenius correctly predicted that when Earth’s temperature warms, water vapor evaporation from the oceans increases. The higher concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere would then contribute to the greenhouse effect and global warming.

The predictions about carbon dioxide and its role in global warming set forth by Arrhenius were virtually ignored for over half a century, until scientists began to detect a disturbing change in atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide. In 1957 researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, based in San Diego, California, began monitoring carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere from Hawaii’s remote Mauna Loa Observatory located 3,000 m (11,000 ft) above sea level. When the study began, carbon dioxide concentrations in the Earth’s atmosphere were 315 molecules of gas per million molecules of air (abbreviated parts per million or ppm). Each year carbon dioxide concentrations increased—to 323 ppm by 1970 and 335 ppm by 1980. By 1988 atmospheric carbon dioxide had increased to 350 ppm, an 8 percent increase in only 31 years.

As other researchers confirmed these findings, scientific interest in the accumulation of greenhouse gases and their effect on the environment slowly began to grow. In 1988 the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC was the first international collaboration of scientists to assess the scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information related to the risk of human-induced climate change. The IPCC creates periodic assessment reports on advances in scientific understanding of the causes of climate change, its potential impacts, and strategies to control greenhouse gases. The IPCC played a critical role in establishing the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The UNFCCC, which provides an international policy framework for addressing climate change issues, was adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in 1992.

Today scientists around the world monitor atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and create forecasts about their effects on global temperatures. Air samples from sites spread across the globe are analyzed in laboratories to determine levels of individual greenhouse gases. Sources of greenhouse gases, such as automobiles, factories, and power plants, are monitored directly to determine their emissions. Scientists gather information about climate systems and use this information to create and test computer models that simulate how climate could change in response to changing conditions on the Earth and in the atmosphere. These models act as high-tech crystal balls to project what may happen in the future as greenhouse gas levels rise. Models can only provide approximations, and some of the predictions based on these models often spark controversy within the science community. Nevertheless, the basic concept of global warming is widely accepted by most climate scientists.

| VI. | | Efforts to Control Greenhouse Gases |

Due to overwhelming scientific evidence and growing political interest, global warming is currently recognized as an important national and international issue. Since 1992 representatives from over 160 countries have met regularly to discuss how to reduce worldwide greenhouse gas emissions. In 1997 representatives met in Kyōto, Japan, and produced an agreement, known as the Kyōto Protocol, which requires industrialized countries to reduce their emissions by 2012 to an average of 5 percent below 1990 levels. To help countries meet this agreement cost-effectively, negotiators are trying to develop a system in which nations that have no obligations or that have successfully met their reduced emissions obligations could profit by selling or trading their extra emissions quotas to other countries that are struggling to reduce their emissions. Negotiating such detailed emissions trading rules has been a contentious task for the world community since the signing of the Kyōto Protocol. A ratified agreement is still not yet in force, and ratification received a setback in 2001 when newly elected U.S. president George W. Bush renounced the treaty on the grounds that the required carbon-dioxide reductions in the United States would be too costly. He also objected that developing nations would not be bound by similar carbon-dioxide reducing obligations. However, many experts expect that as the scientific evidence about the dangers of global warming continues to mount, nations will be motivated to cooperate more effectively to reduce the risks of climate change.

Contributed By:
Stephen H. Schneider, B.S., M.S., Ph.D.
Professor, Biological Sciences and Senior Fellow, Institute for International Studies, Stanford University. Editor, Climatic Change; author of Global Warming: Are We Entering the Greenhouse Century?

Michael Mastrandrea, B.S.
Doctoral candidate, Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences, Stanford University; Department of Energy Global Change and Environment Program Fellow. Coauthor of The Role of Tropical Forest Conservation in Climate Change Mitigation.

"Greenhouse Effect," Microsoft® Encarta® Online Encyclopedia 2004
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